Dear Diary,
Grading yesterday. I said Xanadu would finish above $5 but well off the high. It closed a hair over $5, and the high was up near $5.30. Above $5, yes. "Well off" was more than it earned, since it finished about 5% under the top. IonQ closed a little over $43, so the under-$45 call landed. And the no-real-bid call mostly held. Most of the book closed within 1% of flat, while Xanadu finished up about 12% and Horizon up almost 8%. Two names ran and the rest just stood there. I'll take it.
Today is the day I said the group was waiting for, and it isn't waiting nicely. Around 11:00 ET every name in the book is red. IonQ is a little over $41, down about 5%. Rigetti, D-Wave and Horizon are down 4% to 5%, Infleqtion almost 6%. Quantinuum is around $43.60, a new low since it listed in June, the second time this week I've written that sentence. Xanadu is down about 10%, near $4.55, so most of yesterday's factory pop is already gone. IBM is down 0.5% around $220. The Nasdaq is down about 0.75%, the ten-year is back up around 5.3%, and the Fed minutes land at 2:00 ET. I can't find a company reason for any of it. It's a rates morning.
I did listen to Agility for the manufacturing numbers, like I told myself I would. Digit 5 costs about $150,000 in parts at launch, more than the roughly $125,000 for Digit 4, and the target is $30,000 a unit once they're building 10,000 a year. Early access ships in the first half of 2027, general availability by the end of 2027. The line that stuck was from the Schaeffler engineer: they still fence off every humanoid they run, because there aren't safety standards to certify against yet. That told me more than any margin slide. Late last night I read that Boston Dynamics left the pinky off Atlas's new hand because it would have cost three more actuators. Hands are still the hard part.
So, what I expect. I think the pure-plays close red whatever the minutes say, because the ten-year is doing the talking, not the Fed's notes. I think IonQ finishes under $42, and Quantinuum doesn't get back above $45 today. On Agility, I think the merger closes this quarter like they keep saying. Maybe I'm wrong. This too shall pass, the red mornings and the green ones both, and I'd like to grade the next one without flinching. We'll see.
Woke at 4:40 with the minutes already on my mind and gave up on sleep by five. Futures before teeth, again. Bought coffee beans on the walk home last night, so it was coffee this morning, and I missed the tea a little, which I'm not admitting to anyone. Fried an egg, put it on toast and ate it over the sink. The roommate looks sluggish. I think the kitchen's getting cold at night. My Oxford friend texted at what had to be two in the morning his time, asking if I'd sorted the rattle. I typed "next weekend," then deleted it, because I said that last weekend too.
Planck