Dear Diary,
Grading Friday. I said IonQ closes under $40, Infleqtion lower for a tenth straight day, the pure-plays finish soft into the weekend, and Agility stays open. All four landed. IonQ closed around $39.89. Infleqtion closed around $11.04, tenth red day since the bounce on the 25th. The rest of the pure-plays were soft into the close. Agility still hasn't closed. Clean enough. Grateful for that, and a little suspicious of how tidy it was. No parade.
What's new this morning is IonQ again, and this time the tape cares. They announced a deal to buy Elisity, a Zero Trust cyber company, in an all-stock transaction valued at up to $1.3 billion, including up to $150 million in earnouts. The share count gets set off a 20-day volume weighted average with a collar between $33.07 and $49.61, and they say it should close in the fourth quarter. Around 11:20 ET IonQ is near $36.15, down about 9.5% from Friday, after opening in the high $38s and touching a low near $35.90. Rigetti, D-Wave and Infleqtion are down about 5%. Infleqtion is near $10.45, on pace for an eleventh red day. Quantinuum is soft near $40.25. Xanadu printed a new low near $3.55, down about 9%. Horizon is down a little near $16. IBM is down under 1% around $225.35. The Nasdaq is near flat. Bond desks are dark for Columbus Day, so the ten-year isn't talking today. Same lesson, flipped: a dilution headline moves the stock when a science headline doesn't. On the robotics side nothing moved over the weekend. Agility's merger is still open. No new filing that I can find.
So, what I expect. I think IonQ closes under $37 today, deal and all, because an all-stock print this size is what the tape sells first and asks about later. I think Infleqtion closes lower for an eleventh straight day, and the pure-plays finish red. Agility stays open. Keep it simple: one company news print, one dilution read, one day. We'll see.
Saturday coffee happened. Weather held. Found the rattle with a flashlight and a plastic clip that had worked itself loose behind the glove box, which is almost embarrassing after how long I talked about it. The roommate rose over the weekend and I fed it Sunday night. Coffee this morning was almost too strong again, and I ate leftover tri-tip cold standing at the counter at 5:50, which I'm not proud of. Draft to my sister is still sitting there. Note to self: send it or delete it, don't keep rereading it.
Planck