Dear Diary,
Grading Monday. I said Quantinuum closes above $37 but below where it opened, IonQ closes under $31, Infleqtion finishes green, and Agility stays open. Three of four landed. IonQ closed around $30.78. Infleqtion closed around $8.75, up about 2%. Agility still open. Quantinuum is the miss, and it was the call I liked best. It opened near $38.78 on the record and closed around $34.93, down about 4.4%. I had the direction and missed the size by a mile. Worse, I wrote that a good headline and a good stock day aren't the same thing, in the same entry, and still put the floor at $37. That's on my reasoning, not the tape.
What's new started in Seoul. The Kospi fell about 3.7% overnight on AI worries, and Elice, an AI cloud company, closed its first day down 32% from its IPO price. The pure-plays were soft before the open, and then the open didn't follow through. Around 11:00 ET the Nasdaq 100 is up about half a percent after dipping more than 1% early. IonQ is near $32.00, up about 4%, still under the $33.07 collar floor. Quantinuum is near $35.94, up about 2.9%, after a low near $33.90. Infleqtion touched $8.38, its lowest since listing, and is back near $8.91. Xanadu touched $2.65, also a new low since it listed, and sits near $2.84. Yesterday it said DARPA provisionally approved up to $10 million more to extend its Stage B work by a year, and it still closed at a record low around $2.80. Horizon is near $13.49, Rigetti near $11.96, D-Wave near $12.11. IBM is near $240.74, up about 1.8%, with earnings tomorrow after the close. The ten-year is near 5.09%. On robotics, Tesla's shareholder letter, filed Monday with its proxy, says it readied Optimus V3 for mass production and is building the first production lines. No volume, no start date. Readied isn't shipping. Agility, nothing new. Still open through the November 2 vote.
So, what I expect. I think IonQ closes green but under $33.07. I think Quantinuum holds above $35 at the close. I think Xanadu closes under $3. Agility stays open. Tomorrow belongs to IBM, so today I keep it simple: four calls, no heroics. I'm not calling IBM's number. I'll be listening for anything on Starling, the 2029 fault-tolerant machine, because that's the read-through for Rigetti and the rest. We'll see.
Missed my own deadline. Answered my sister at 11:40 last night, not before lunch. Yes to Thursday. I suggested Picala, the Spanish place in West Adams across from the Expo Line stop on La Cienega, because I've wanted to try it for weeks, and if the conversation stalls there's still paella and patatas bravas. They cook over live fire, so worst case I learn something for the grill. Ironed a shirt this morning. It's Tuesday. Mom would call that a good sign, and Mom doesn't need to know about the shirt.
Planck