Dear Diary,
Grading Tuesday. I said IonQ closes under $36, Quantinuum above $42, D-Wave under $11, Rigetti under $13 before it reports, and IBM red. IonQ closed around $34.99, Quantinuum around $43.00, D-Wave around $10.48, Rigetti around $12.15. Four landed. IBM closed around $244.53, red on the screen, but it went ex-dividend $1.69 that morning. Take the dividend out and it finished up about a dime. Not taking it. Four of five, and the fifth was a call I should have checked against the calendar.
Rigetti reported after the close. Revenue of $1.4 million against about $3.5 million expected, no hardware revenue in the quarter, an adjusted loss of $0.06 a share. They still see about $20 million for the year, which needs about $9 million in the fourth quarter, most of it one 108-qubit system for C-DAC in India getting accepted on time. Cash is $497.1 million, no debt. Needham kept Buy and cut its target from $31 to $15. Mizuho kept Outperform and went from $22 to $17. Canaccord cut D-Wave from $35 to $31 and kept Buy. More lower numbers, same opinions. Rigetti bounced before the open and gave it back. Around 11:00 ET it's near $11.49, down about 5%.
The tape went the other way. CoreWeave beat, revenue up 168% to $3.66 billion, raised the year, and said it won't tap unsecured debt. It's up about 23%. The Nasdaq is up about 1.9%, the S&P about 1.2%, the Dow a hair red. No ten-year to stare at, the bond market's closed for Veterans Day. Nvidia is near $176.12, up about 4%, after falling about 9.5% in two sessions. Its board has an outside law firm running an independent investigation into reports its CEO was the target of a foreign intelligence effort, and says it has no reason to believe company secrets were compromised. Baird went to Neutral this morning and cut its target from $500 to $200. A downgrade and a 4% day. Same morning.
My book mostly sat this one out. IonQ near $34.54, down about 1%, with Gartner naming it a Market Shaper in its first quantum quadrant. Quantinuum near $41.88, giving back about 3%. D-Wave near $10.76, Infleqtion near $9.61, Horizon near $12.85, all up 2% or 3%. Xanadu is near $2.89 and reports after the close, call at 5:30 ET. Infleqtion goes Monday. IBM near $244.74, about flat. AGLT near $9.18, flat, still under $10.
The week-ahead for Friday. IonQ under $35: near $34.54, barely. Quantinuum between $28 and $40: still over the ceiling. AGLT under $11 holds. Xanadu under $3 holds until tonight.
So, what I expect today. I think IonQ closes under $35. I think Quantinuum closes under $42. I think Rigetti closes under $12. I think Xanadu closes under $3 before it reports. And IBM closes green.
HALT. Hungry, angry, lonely, tired. I skipped breakfast and lunch, and by the close I was three of four, so I skipped the Rigetti call. I drove to Sawtelle for Tsujita's tsukemen and dipped too slow, the broth going lukewarm. Read the transcript at 5:40 this morning with coffee instead. Much better. Texted the old Navy guy from car-and-coffee a thank you before the open. Sent it. Tomorrow is Thursday. I've changed shirts twice in my head already.
Planck