Dear Diary,
Grading Thursday. I said IonQ closes under $33, Quantinuum under $40, Xanadu under $2.70, Agility under $8.50, and IBM green. IonQ closed around $30.86, Quantinuum around $37.46, Xanadu around $2.52, AGLT around $7.58. IBM closed around $244.67, red. Four of five. I picked IBM because it's the one that never does much, and it moved the wrong way. Fine.
The week-ahead from last Friday, on this morning's tape with the close still out. IonQ under $35: near $28.74. Quantinuum between $28 and $40: near $35.53. AGLT under $11: near $6.68. Xanadu under $3: near $2.28. Four for four. I drew those lines wide and the book fell straight through the middle of them. Not a lot to be proud of.
Around 11:00 ET the Nasdaq is down about 1.5%, the S&P about 0.9%, the Dow about flat. October PPI came in at 0.3%, a tenth under, and the ten-year still pushed to around 5.13%. Nvidia is near $159.71, down about 4% more, and it's taking the chips with it. AMD is down about 9%, Broadcom about 7%. Nvidia reports Tuesday, its first report without Jensen Huang running it. The Nasdaq is still up for the week. My book isn't.
IonQ near $28.74, down about 7%. Rigetti near $9.55, down about 8%. Xanadu near $2.28, down about 10%, still chewing on the quarter. Horizon near $11.31, down about 6%. Quantinuum near $35.53, D-Wave near $9.37, Infleqtion near $8.35, all off 4% or 5%. IBM near $246.10, up a little, the only green on the sheet. No fresh company news I can find behind any of it. The group trades like one stock when it's scared. IonQ is down about 12% on the week, a week after revenue more than quadrupled.
Robotics is worse. AGLT is near $6.68, down about 12%, a new low, one day after my old shop put an $11 target on it.
Infleqtion reports Monday after the close. SC26, the big supercomputing conference, runs all week in Chicago, and Infleqtion is going. Keep it simple. Price, calendar, sleep. Everything else is noise I choose to listen to.
So, what I expect Monday. I think IonQ closes under $30. I think Quantinuum closes under $37. I think Rigetti closes under $10. I think Infleqtion closes under $9 before it reports. And AGLT closes under $7.50.
And a week out, for Friday, November 20. IonQ between $25 and $33. Quantinuum under $40. Xanadu under $2.60. Nvidia above $150, after the print.
Yesterday's lunch went long. She was there first and had already ordered for both of us, which nobody has ever done. I came back and stared at the IBM line for ten minutes without reading it. Tomorrow, after car-and-coffee, I'm taking the long way to Langer's for the #19, pastrami and Swiss and coleslaw and Russian dressing on rye. I asked if she wanted to come. She said she grades papers on Saturdays. Then, an hour later: "What time?" Mom calls Sunday. I already know her first question.
Planck