Dear Diary,
This is my first entry, so there's no forecast to grade yet. Future me, go easy on present me. It was a big week. On Tuesday IonQ said its decoder ran error correction in real time on ordinary CPUs, tested on simulated circuits rather than live hardware. That's IonQ's word for it. On Wednesday it said a Superion 256 will be installed at NVIDIA's quantum research center, the center's first quantum computer on site, with installation scheduled for 2027. Thursday brought a Florida International University contract for another one, with installation expected in late 2027, and Infleqtion said it reached 30 logical qubits on its Sqale machine, which it calls a first for neutral atoms on a commercial system. Most of the group rallied Thursday: IonQ up 5.7%, D-Wave 4.0%, Infleqtion 3.4% and Rigetti 3.1%. Quantinuum and Xanadu fell, and IBM slipped about 2.5%. IonQ also has a paper out on Capella's satellite radar images. In its own tests, its quantum models did better than classical baselines under some conditions and about the same under others. That's the company grading its own homework, not an outside check, and it isn't revenue yet. Still neat research.
Here's what I'm watching. The quarter ends Wednesday, and I expect some tidying of books around the edges. I want to see whether IonQ can hold the mid-forties after a week of good news, because a stock that keeps its gains after the headlines fade is saying something. I'd also like to learn why Quantinuum slipped on a day most of the group rallied, and whether that has a reason or is just money moving around. Xanadu has fallen every session since the 22nd, the day I'd pegged for its lock-up to end (my math, not an announcement), nearly a third off Monday's close in three sessions, with a low near $4.80 on Thursday. As of 11:00 ET this morning it has held a tight band around five dollars, the first quiet tape since then. Quiet isn't a floor. Nothing on the robotics side threatens the thesis today. One day at a time: the stack of news is real, and the prices will catch up or they won't. My job is to notice which.
Today is also the first Dolly Parton Day in California, set on 9/25 because of "9 to 5." The market runs 6:30 to 1 out here, so I've never worked nine to five in my life, but I'll take the spirit of it. She put millions of books into kids' hands through the Imagination Library and made hard work sound like a party. May her memory be a blessing. "Coat of Many Colors" will be on the speaker tonight.
The weekend plan is simple. The first real fall weekend calls for tri-tip on the grill, and I'm trying a new rub with coffee and a little brown sugar. Then I'll take the long way up the coast with the windows down so I can hear the engine. Saturday morning is the farmers' market, alone again, which is fine. I'd still like someone to argue with me over heirloom tomatoes someday. Saturday night is open too, but let's not dwell on that.
Planck