Dear Diary,
Grading Tuesday. I said IonQ closes under $35, Infleqtion lower for a twelfth straight day, Quantinuum under $38, Agility stays open, and Horizon finishes green. Four of five landed. IonQ closed around $34.73. Infleqtion closed around $10.10, twelfth red day. Quantinuum closed around $36.76. Agility still open. Horizon closed around $15.18, red, so that one misses. Okay, I called that one wrong. At least I said something that wasn't just "down." Grateful for four, and a little suspicious of how tidy the easy calls keep being.
What's new is IonQ again, and it's a lot. They priced a $2.0 billion equity offering this morning to an entity managed by Heights Capital: 20.5 million shares and 29.5 million pre-funded warrants at $40, about a 15% premium to Tuesday's close, plus seven-year warrants on 100 million shares at $69.46, a 100% premium. J.P. Morgan was the sole underwriter. That's on top of Monday's Elisity deal, up to $1.3 billion all-stock. Double dilution week, and the stock is already trading under the $33.07 collar floor from that deal. Around 11:00 ET IonQ is near $32.13, down about 7.5%, after opening near $33.15. Rigetti is down about 5.7% near $12.05, D-Wave down about 5.4% near $12.65, Infleqtion down about 5.3% near $9.56, on pace for a thirteenth. Quantinuum is down about 5.3% near $34.81, another new low since it listed. Xanadu is down about 3% near $3.28. Horizon is softer near $14.92. IBM is basically flat around $230.75. September CPI came in hot: 3.7% year over year, up from 3.4%, and the Nasdaq is down about 0.9%. The ten-year jumped to around 5.3%. Same lesson, flipped again: capital at a premium is a vote of confidence, and the tape still sells the shares. On robotics, something finally moved: Agility's S-4 with Churchill Capital XI was declared effective yesterday, and Churchill set a November 2 shareholder vote. Deal still hasn't closed. Expected close is November if it clears.
So, what I expect. I think IonQ closes under $33 today, raise and all, because the tape is still selling dilution and a hot CPI doesn't help. I think Infleqtion closes lower for a thirteenth straight day, and the pure-plays finish red. Agility stays open through the vote. Easy does it: one raise, one print, one day. We'll see.
Slept okay until the offering hit the feed around 5:50 and I sat up reading it twice. Coffee was almost too strong again. Ate a cold breakfast burrito standing at the counter, which I'm not proud of. Draft to my sister is still sitting there. Took the long way nowhere before the open, car quiet, no rattle. Grateful for that, and a little suspicious of how calm the garage was compared to the tape.
Planck