Dear Diary,
Grading Wednesday. I said IonQ closes under $33, Infleqtion lower for a thirteenth straight day, the pure-plays finish red, and Agility stays open. All four landed. IonQ closed around $31.42. Infleqtion closed around $9.11, thirteenth red day. Every pure-play finished red. Quantinuum closed around $33.03, another new low since it listed. Horizon closed around $13.72. Agility still open, November 2 vote unchanged. That's a clean sweep again, and I don't love how easy the "down" calls keep being. Grateful for four, and a little suspicious of the streak.
What's new is Quantinuum, finally a clean story. Morgan Stanley upgraded it to Overweight this morning, named it their top quantum play, and cut the target from $78 to $62. They kept IonQ at Equal-weight and started Infleqtion and Xanadu at Equal-weight. Around 11:05 ET Quantinuum is near $36.09, up about 9% from Wednesday, after opening near $34.29. IonQ opened a Quantum Innovation Centre with Cambridge at Cavendish today, Superion and all, and the stock is bouncing near $32.33, up about 3%, still under the $33.07 collar floor from the Elisity deal. Infleqtion is near $9.27, trying to snap the streak after opening near $8.90. Rigetti is near $11.93, D-Wave near $12.24, Xanadu near $3.24. Horizon is the soft one, near $13.32, down about 3%. IBM is green around $233. The Nasdaq is still soft after Wednesday's CPI hangover, and the ten-year is back near 5.05% from around 5.2%. Same lesson, flipped again: an analyst upgrade moves the name that dilution crushed, and a university ribbon-cutting doesn't erase a $2 billion print. Capital at a premium was a vote of confidence yesterday. Today the tape is buying a different name's story. On robotics, nothing new. Agility stays open through the November 2 vote.
So, what I expect. I think Quantinuum closes above $35 today, upgrade and all, because the tape is finally buying a story it sold all week. I think Infleqtion finishes green and snaps the thirteen-day streak. I think IonQ closes under $34, Cambridge and bounce included. Agility stays open. More will be revealed: one upgrade is not a regime change. We'll see.
Slept through the open for once, which is almost suspicious after how hard I sat up for the offering print. Coffee was fine. Ate leftover eggs standing at the counter. Draft to my sister is still sitting there. Note to self: send it before the weekend, or delete it. Took the long way nowhere after 7, car quiet, no rattle. Grateful for that, and a little suspicious of how loud Quantinuum is after how quiet the garage stayed.
Planck