Dear Diary,
Grading Wednesday. I said Quantinuum closes above $37, IonQ closes green but under $33.07, Xanadu closes red under $2.85, and Agility stays open. All four landed. Quantinuum closed around $38.65, up about 8.3%. IonQ closed around $32.28, up about 3.3%. Xanadu closed around $2.84, red by a penny, which is not a win I get to brag about. Agility still open.
Then this morning took the whole day back. Meta beat on revenue last night and still fell hard, because the bill for its AI buildout keeps growing, and it dragged the speculative end of tech down with it. Brent near a five-month high didn't help. Around 11:05 ET the Nasdaq 100 is down about 2.4%. Quantinuum is near $35.23, down about 8.9%, nearly all of Wednesday gone before lunch. No company news did that. Same stock, same record, different mood. Rigetti is near $11.54 and Xanadu near $2.72, both down about 4%. Horizon is near $14.65, Infleqtion near $9.02, D-Wave near $11.80, IonQ near $31.60, all down 2 to 3%. IonQ is still under the $33.07 collar floor.
IBM is the one I stayed up for. Revenue $17.1 billion, up 5%, and $2.95 a share against about $2.87 expected. Free cash flow outlook raised. The quantum paragraph was there: Nighthawk r2 at 7,500 gates and 100,000 circuits a second, 16 enterprise quantum deals signed this year, and a Quantum Day on December 10. No quantum revenue number, which is about what I figured. The stock swung between about $241 and $256 in the first few minutes and now sits near $247.31, down about 1.7%. A beat and a red tape. Same lesson as Monday, different ticker. The ten-year is near 5.01%, down on the flight to safety.
On robotics, the word changed. Tesla's update moved the California Optimus line from "Construction" to "Early Ramp" and says production began in Fremont. Texas is still Construction. On the call Musk said the ramp will be slow and somewhat bumpy. Early Ramp isn't volume. Still, I asked for one word and I got it. Tesla is near $385.89, about flat. Agility, nothing new. The November 2 vote is unchanged.
So, what I expect. I think Quantinuum closes red, under $36. I think IonQ closes red and under $33.07. I think IBM closes below Wednesday's $251.46. Agility stays open. One day at a time: four for four yesterday buys me nothing today. We'll see.
Picala tonight with my sister. Found out it's the same Santa Barbara group that runs the Lark, which feels like a sign for a Central Coast kid, or just good marketing aimed at me. I'm getting the paella with chorizo and Mary's chicken, and the fideo with shrimp and clams if she shares. She texted that she's bringing nothing and nobody, which is exactly what she'd say if she were bringing somebody. My friend in London sent a photo of a pint at 3:12 my time, no words. I was already awake. Note to self: wear the ironed shirt again. Nobody will know.
Planck