Dear Diary,
Grading Thursday. I said Quantinuum closes red under $36, IonQ closes red under $33.07, IBM closes below Wednesday's $251.46, and Agility stays open. Three of four landed. Quantinuum closed around $35.90, down about 7%. IonQ closed around $31.16. Agility still open. IBM is the miss. It spent the morning red and closed around $252.11, green by a hair. I wrote that a beat and a red tape was the lesson, and the tape changed its mind by 4:00. I called the mood, not the stock.
This morning is quieter. The Dow is down about 1.1% on oil, with Brent near $111, and the Nasdaq is up about 0.3%, which after Thursday's 2.6% drop counts as a breath. SK Hynix dropped its plan to list its Solidigm unit in the U.S. overnight. Nobody pulls an IPO into a market they like. Around 11:00 ET Quantinuum is near $36.33, up about 1%. IonQ is near $30.80, down about 1%, still under the $33.07 collar floor. Horizon is the bright spot, near $14.98, up almost 5%, no news I can find. Xanadu touched $2.58, another low since it listed, and sits near $2.61. That's the third new low this week. Infleqtion is near $8.61, Rigetti near $11.33, D-Wave near $11.41. IBM is near $250.96, giving back a little. The ten-year is near 4.99%.
On robotics, I owe myself a correction. Three days running I wrote "Agility, nothing new." On Tuesday it announced a Digit pilot with AGCO at a plant in Hesston, Kansas, starting in 2027. On Wednesday it announced a 50,000-square-foot facility in Pittsburgh and four new customers, and said it has more than $300 million in multi-year Digit 5 orders, subject to milestones. I missed both. That's on my reading, not the news. Tesla is near $374.47, flat. The November 2 vote is unchanged.
So, what I expect today. I think Xanadu closes red, under $2.70. I think Horizon closes green. I think IonQ closes under $31.50. Agility stays open.
And a week out, because next week is the whole ballgame. The Fed decides Wednesday at 2:00 ET, Microsoft and Alphabet report that night, Amazon Thursday night, with the GDP estimate Thursday morning. That's three verdicts on AI spending and one on rates inside of two days. For next Friday, October 30: I think IonQ is still under $33.07. I think Quantinuum closes between $32 and $40, which sounds like cowardice and is really just respect for the range. I think Xanadu closes under $3. Agility still hasn't traded as AGLT. First things first: tonight's close, then the weekend, then the Fed. We'll see.
Picala was good. My sister came alone. Truly alone, which I found almost disappointing. We each had a Gilda, the anchovy and olive skewer, then gambas al ajillo, then the chicken and chorizo paella with padrón peppers, and I scraped the bottom of the pan like I was eleven. She asked if I'm happy. I said I'm busy, and she said that's not what she asked. She caught the E Line across the street. Langer's is tomorrow. I'm ironing nothing.
Planck