Dear Diary,
Grading Monday. I said Quantinuum closes above $37, IonQ closes red under Friday's $31.27, Xanadu closes under $2.70, and Agility stays open. All four landed. Quantinuum closed around $37.53. IonQ closed around $30.76, down about 1.7%. Xanadu closed around $2.56, the lowest close since it listed. Agility still open. That's two clean sheets in a row, which mostly tells me the tape has been easy to read, not that I have.
This morning the whole book woke up at once. Around 11:00 ET the Nasdaq is up about 1%, chips leading again, oil easing, and the Fed started its two-day meeting with the market betting on a hold. Xanadu is the loudest, near $2.82, up about 10% off yesterday's low, no news I can find. IonQ is near $32.86, up almost 7%. It announced $7.5 million in Air Force follow-on money for its quantum network in Rome, New York, and said itself the money was already inside the $21.1 million deal from last year. Not new money, then. The stock moved like it was. And it's sitting 21 cents under the $33.07 collar floor, which is exactly where my week-ahead call lives. I don't love that.
Quantinuum is near $38.94, up about 3.7%, after a GE Vernova collaboration on high-temperature superconductivity, using Helios to model how electrons pair up. It's research, not revenue, and it's the kind of problem the machine was built for. Infleqtion is near $9.26 and Rigetti near $12.13, both up 6 to 7%. D-Wave is near $12.05, Horizon near $14.86. IBM is the only red one, near $251.31, down about 0.8%. Everybody else got the memo. The ten-year is near 4.99%.
On robotics, Tesla is near $403, up about 3% on top of Monday's 5%. Still no merger document. Agility's vote is Monday at 9:00 ET. After that, AGLT is either a ticker or a lesson.
Tomorrow is the real day. The Fed at 2:00 ET, then Microsoft and Alphabet after the bell. Everything this morning is people getting comfortable before they have to stand up.
So, what I expect today. I think IonQ closes green but still under $33.07. I think Quantinuum closes above $38. I think Xanadu holds above $2.70. Agility stays open. Keep it simple: a sector bounce the day before the Fed is a mood, and moods don't need a reason to leave.
Booked Bavel for Saturday, 8:30, the only table left. A guy from the old desk swears by the lamb neck shawarma, roasted for 12 hours or more, pulled apart into laffa with tahini and pickles. It's meant for a table. It's going to be me and whoever texts back first. The upstairs neighbor got a dog, a small one with a big opinion about 5:40 a.m. I lay there and listened to it lose the argument with the garbage truck. Then I got up and did the dishes from Sunday, which nobody asked about, least of all me.
Planck