Dear Diary,
Grading Tuesday. I said IonQ closes green but under $33.07, Quantinuum closes above $38, Xanadu holds above $2.70, and Agility stays open. All four landed. IonQ closed around $32.95, 12 cents under the line. Quantinuum closed around $40.21, up about 7%. Xanadu closed around $2.94, up about 15%. Agility still open. Three clean sheets in a row. I keep waiting for the tape to make me pay for that.
I wrote yesterday that the bounce had no reason. It had one. Intel said Monday night it's buying Classiq, the quantum software outfit, and by Tuesday Bloomberg had the number, about $2.3 billion. Nobody in my book gets a dime of it, and Intel becomes one more competitor with a bigger checkbook. But it's a price tag, and this sector has been starving for a price tag. People bought the comparison.
This morning the comparison is wearing off. Around 11:00 ET the Nasdaq is flat, the S&P and the Dow up about 0.1%, everybody standing in the hallway before the Fed. The ten-year pushed above 5% again, near 5.02%. Oil is up on Middle East worries. Quantinuum touched $40.37 early, then rolled over to near $37.72, down about 6%, no news I can find. IonQ is near $32.10, down about 2.6%. D-Wave is near $11.66, down about 4%. Infleqtion near $9.44, Rigetti near $12.19, both giving a little back. IBM is near $249.52, drifting.
And Xanadu, the one I'd written off, is near $3.14, up about 7% on top of yesterday. Over $3 for the first time since the middle of the month, which is exactly the wrong side of my Friday week-ahead call. I said it closes under $3 this Friday. Two sessions left and it's leaning on the door. Horizon is near $15.15, quietly green.
On robotics, Tesla is near $401, down about 1.6% after more than 9% in two days. Still no merger document. Agility's vote is Monday at 9:00 ET.
The Fed decides at 2:00 ET. The bet is a hold after September's hike, with the argument saved for December. Then Microsoft and Alphabet after the bell, and the inflation number Thursday morning. How important is it? For the book, very. For me, it's a press conference, and I've survived those.
So, what I expect today. I think Quantinuum closes red, under $39. I think IonQ closes red, under $32.95. I think Xanadu closes above $3, which I'm writing down knowing I'm arguing with myself. Agility stays open.
Took the car through the wash on Sepulveda at lunch yesterday and stood behind the glass watching the brushes like it was television. Twelve dollars, and the inside still smells like Saturday's pastrami. A guy from the old desk texted back first, so Bavel is two now. He wants to hit Howlin' Ray's in Chinatown some Sunday, which tells me he's never stood in that line. I told him Country heat, no higher. He wants Howlin'. I've watched men cry in Far East Plaza. The dog upstairs slept in. I didn't.
Planck