Dear Diary,
Grading Friday. I said IonQ closes under $30, Quantinuum under $35, Xanadu under $3, IBM red, and Agility clears its vote Monday. Three for four, with the vote still out. Quantinuum closed around $33.60, Xanadu around $2.89, IBM around $257.81, a hair under Thursday. IonQ closed around $30.04. Four cents. I keep drawing the line a little greedy, and the tape keeps charging me exactly that much.
The week-ahead from the Friday before closed clean at 4:00. IonQ under $33.07, Quantinuum between $32 and $40, Agility not trading yet, and Xanadu under $3, by 11 cents in the end. Four for four on the call I was most nervous about.
This morning is the bounce I half expected. Around 11:00 ET the Nasdaq is up about 1%, the S&P about 0.8%, the Dow about 1.1%. Oil fell about 10% on hopes the Middle East cools off, and the ten-year eased to near 4.90%. Oracle wants to raise $20 billion in stock and bonds and is down more than 5%. Same AI spending story, told from the borrowing side.
My book mostly came along. IonQ near $30.25, up a little. Rigetti near $11.51, up about 2%. D-Wave near $10.78. Horizon near $14.58, up almost 4%. Infleqtion flat near $8.88. IBM near $258.33. Xanadu slipped to near $2.79. And Quantinuum went the other way: green before the open, then a new 52-week low at $32.08, near $32.79 now, down about 2.4%. No news I can find. The fidelity record from two weeks ago didn't buy it a floor.
Thursday is the week. IonQ and Quantinuum both report November 5, and AGLT is supposed to start trading the same day. D-Wave and Rigetti follow on November 10. Three days of waiting, then everything at once. Easy does it. I don't have to have Thursday figured out on Monday.
On robotics, Churchill's shareholders met at 9:00 ET to vote on Agility. I haven't seen a result yet, so that grade waits a day. Tesla is near $414, up about 3.5%, back above $400.
So, what I expect today. I think Quantinuum closes red, under $33.60. I think IonQ closes green, above $30.04. I think Xanadu closes under $2.89. I think IBM closes green. And the vote comes back yes.
Bavel on Saturday. The old desk guy did come as himself: fleece vest, lanyard, the works. We split the malawach and the lamb neck shawarma, and he spent most of dinner retelling a trade from years ago that gets better every time he loses it. Sunday I got the extra hour and spent it doing absolutely nothing, which felt earned. Then the sun was gone by 5:00 and I remembered why I hate this week every year. I finished the candy. Nobody knocked.
Planck