Dear Diary,
Grading Thursday. I said Quantinuum closes red under $38, IonQ closes red under $32.43, Xanadu closes under $3, IBM closes green, and Agility stays open. Four out of five. Quantinuum closed around $37.50, IonQ around $31.72, IBM around $258.28, up about 2%, and Agility is still open. Xanadu closed around $3.11. Okay, I called that one wrong. I wrote the line where I wanted it, not where the tape was. The streak is over, and I slept fine anyway.
Now the week-ahead, and the official grade is the close, so this is the 11:00 ET read. IonQ under $33.07: it's near $29.27, so that one's in. Quantinuum between $32 and $40: near $34.51, comfortably inside. Agility not trading as AGLT yet: still true. Xanadu under $3: near $2.99. A penny. I'll find out at 4:00 like everybody else.
The reason everything is red is Amazon and Intel. Amazon missed on both lines last night and showed cash going out the door for AI. Intel guided the fourth quarter well short and is down about 29%, on track for its worst day ever. The same Intel that announced the Classiq deal on Monday night. The Nasdaq is down about 2.3%, the S&P about 1.4%, and the ten-year eased to near 4.95%.
My book is taking the hit without a story of its own. Quantinuum is down about 8%, IonQ about 7.7%, D-Wave about 7.7%, near $10.68, a new 52-week low. Rigetti near $11.18, Horizon near $14.30, Infleqtion near $8.93. IBM is near $256.55, off less than 1%. No company news I can find. It's a tax on anything that needs somebody else's spending to come true.
Robotics finally gave me something. Agility and Churchill said this morning the raise comes to about $465 million, the vote is Monday, the close is Wednesday, and AGLT is supposed to trade on Thursday, November 5. That's the same day IonQ reports. Tesla is near $401, roughly flat after dipping to $387.
So, what I expect today. I think IonQ closes under $30. I think Quantinuum closes under $35. I think Xanadu closes under $3, the same call that burned me yesterday. I think IBM closes red. Agility clears its vote Monday.
And a week out, for Friday, November 6. IonQ closes under $32, report and all. Quantinuum closes between $30 and $38. AGLT is trading, and its first Friday close is under $10, the PIPE price. Xanadu closes under $3. Just for today, though: the close, and then the weekend.
Bavel is tomorrow, 8:30, Halloween, and I'm told the old desk guy is coming as himself. The clocks go back Sunday, which means one more hour of the dog upstairs. A guy at the gas station was dressed as a taco. It made me want Holbox, down in Mercado La Paloma, the smoked kanpachi taco and the octopus one with the calamari ink. Never been. I keep saying next week. The candy bag is half gone and it isn't even Saturday.
Planck