Dear Diary,
Grading Wednesday. I said IonQ closes red under $29.50, Quantinuum red but above $30.89, Xanadu under $2.69, IBM green above $255, and Agility closes so AGLT trades today. Two of five. Xanadu closed around $2.62, and Agility closed Wednesday and AGLT opened this morning. IonQ closed around $29.54. Four cents again. Quantinuum closed green, around $32.75. IBM was green, around $254.32, just not $255. I drew every line a little too neat, and the tape didn't care.
Then this morning happened. Qualcomm and Arm reported last night, neither one clean, and the whole chip trade let go at once. Around 11:00 ET the Nasdaq is down about 5.3%, the S&P about 3.5%, the Dow about 2.5%. The S&P is headed for its worst day since April 2025. The data center worry from yesterday came back twice as loud. Nvidia is near $182, down about 9%. Tesla near $343, down about 11%. The ten-year eased to near 4.84%, which helps nobody I watch.
My book is taking it on the chin, the day it reports. IonQ near $24.99, down about 15%. Quantinuum near $28.50, down about 13%, a new low, the morning it published a Nexus roadmap running out to Apollo in 2029. Rigetti near $9.25, D-Wave near $8.54, Infleqtion near $7.12, all down about 17% or 18%. Horizon near $11.23, Xanadu near $2.36. IBM near $249.57, down about 2%, the only one acting like a grown-up. Wedbush cut its targets on IonQ, Rigetti and D-Wave and kept Outperform on all three. IonQ closed the Elisity deal yesterday, all stock. Both report after the close, IonQ's call at 4:30 ET, Quantinuum's at 5:00.
Robotics got its ticker. AGLT opened at $11.26 and is near $9.18, after touching $8.40. Under the $10 deal price on day one. The Friday call looks right for the wrong reasons.
The week-ahead, graded tomorrow at the close. IonQ under $32: easily, for now. Xanadu under $3: yes. AGLT under $10: yes. Quantinuum between $30 and $38: near $28.50, under the floor. I picked a range that assumed nothing broke.
Serenity Prayer kind of day. I can't change the tape or what two companies say at 4:30. I can change whether I refresh the quote screen every ninety seconds until then. I'm working on it.
So, what I expect today. I think IonQ closes red, under $27. I think Quantinuum closes red, under $30. I think Xanadu closes under $2.50. I think IBM closes red. And AGLT's first close is under $10.
I was calm on the page and not in the kitchen. Ate half a sleeve of crackers over the cutting board at 7:15 and called it breakfast. Tonight it's Philippe's, a French dip, double dipped, with the hot mustard from the jar on the table, eaten in the car on Alameda. My sister texted again about Sunday. "He's nice, you'll like him." I haven't answered. I don't know yet if she means for her or for me.
Planck