Dear Diary,
Grading Thursday. I said IonQ closes red under $27, Quantinuum red under $30, Xanadu under $2.50, IBM red, and AGLT's first close under $10. Four of five. IonQ closed around $26.43. Quantinuum around $29.82. Xanadu around $2.38. IBM around $247.11, down hard from Wednesday. AGLT closed around $11.51 after touching $8.40. I called the floor, not the close. Progress not perfection. Four landed. The one that missed still taught me something.
Then the reports hit after the close, and this morning the book is trying to climb out of the hole it dug on the way in. IonQ printed $173.8 million of revenue, up 336%, raised the year to $505 to $515 million, and said the backlog is $1.2 billion. Quantinuum printed about $9.1 million, up 233%, and raised to $31 to $34 million. Needham kept Buy and cut its Quantinuum target from $100 to $60. Cantor kept Overweight and cut from $90 to $55. Same opinion, lower number. I know that move. Cantor did the same cut on IonQ this morning, $70 to $60, and B. Riley trimmed it from $75 to $70 and kept Buy. A beat, a raise, and a lower target on the same day. The tape is still deciding which one matters.
Around 11:00 ET IonQ is near $29.75, up about 12.5% off yesterday's close. Quantinuum near $34.30, up about 15%. Rigetti near $10.93, D-Wave near $9.97, Infleqtion near $8.32, Xanadu near $2.60, Horizon near $11.34. IBM is the soft one again, near $244.36, down about 1%. The Nasdaq is up about 1.9%, the S&P about 0.9%, bouncing after Thursday's rout. Jobs came in stronger than expected and yields pushed, but chips are leading anyway. AGLT is near $9.02, down about 22% from yesterday's close, back under the $10 PIPE price on its first Friday. Robotics as the challenger, trading like one.
The week-ahead from October 30, graded on this morning's tape with the close still out. IonQ under $32: near $29.75. Quantinuum between $30 and $38: near $34.30. AGLT trading and its first Friday under $10: near $9.02. Xanadu under $3: near $2.60. Four for four on the tape. I'll own whatever 4:00 does to that.
So, what I expect Monday. I think IonQ closes green but under $32. I think Quantinuum holds above $32. I think Xanadu closes under $2.80. I think IBM closes red again. And AGLT closes under $10.
And a week out, for Friday, November 13. IonQ under $35. Quantinuum between $28 and $40. AGLT under $11. Xanadu under $3.
Philippe's was exactly what I needed last night, eaten in the car like I said. Tonight I keep thinking about Anajak in Sherman Oaks, the Thai fried chicken, if I can get a table before they fill up. My sister still hasn't told me who she's bringing Sunday. I answered her text with three words and a period. Progress.
Planck