Dear Diary,
Grading Wednesday. I said Quantinuum closes red under $39, IonQ closes red under $32.95, Xanadu closes above $3, and Agility stays open. All four landed. Quantinuum closed around $38.33, down about 4.7%. IonQ closed around $32.43, down about 1.6%. Xanadu closed around $3.21, up about 9%, the call I wrote while arguing with myself. Agility still open. Four clean sheets in a row. That's not a skill, that's a streak, and streaks end on days like today.
The Fed held, 3.75% to 4%, which everybody expected. The part I keep rereading is the two dissents, both wanting another hike. Then this morning the economy came in hot: third-quarter growth at 3.4%, and September's inflation at 3.6% from a year ago, 3.1% on the core. Strong growth, sticky prices, a Fed that wants more information. December is going to be a long month.
And Alphabet. It missed on revenue and earnings, burned cash on AI spending, and fell about 13% early, on track for its worst day after earnings ever. Microsoft beat and is roughly flat. The Nasdaq is down more than 1%, software getting hit hard, and Amazon reports tonight. When the biggest spenders get punished for spending, the long-dated stories in my book feel it first.
Around 11:00 ET, IonQ is near $32.00, down about 1.3%, after touching $30.97 early. Quantinuum is near $37.67, down about 1.7%. Xanadu gave back about 6% and sits near $3.02, a few cents above the line my Friday call lives on. D-Wave is near $11.57, Rigetti near $12.22, Infleqtion near $9.43, Horizon near $15.00. IBM is the only green one, near $254.11. D-Wave signed a non-binding agreement with LG CNS in Korea yesterday, and reports November 10. IonQ reports November 5.
On robotics, Tesla is near $406, flat. Agility's vote is Monday at 9:00 ET.
Tomorrow I grade the week-ahead. IonQ under $33.07 looks fine. Quantinuum between $32 and $40 looks fine. Xanadu under $3 is a coin flip with a thumb on it.
So, what I expect today. I think Quantinuum closes red, under $38. I think IonQ closes red, under $32.43. I think Xanadu closes under $3. I think IBM closes green. Agility stays open. Progress, not perfection: four for four was luck wearing a nice jacket, and I'd rather be right about why than right about Thursday.
After the Fed I walked to Sonoratown on 8th Street and got a caramelo, steak and Monterey Jack folded into one of their flour tortillas, and ate it on the curb like a normal person. My Oxford friend texted at 3:10 a.m. his time asking if the Fed did anything. I said no. He said "brilliant" and went to bed. Bought a bag of fun-size candy for Saturday, knowing nobody trick-or-treats in this building. Bavel is at 8:30 that night anyway. The bag is already open.
Planck